{"id":83,"date":"2020-03-03T00:12:40","date_gmt":"2020-03-03T00:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/?p=83"},"modified":"2020-03-04T21:56:31","modified_gmt":"2020-03-04T21:56:31","slug":"piecing-together-the-presidential-nomination-puzzle-civic-mind-series","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/2020\/03\/03\/piecing-together-the-presidential-nomination-puzzle-civic-mind-series\/","title":{"rendered":"Piecing Together the Presidential Nomination Puzzle (Civic Mind Series)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(What is\u00a0Civic Mind<\/em>?\u00a0 Read our\u00a0welcome post for the series<\/a>!)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1968. Civil unrest. The Vietnam War. That year made its mark in the history books, not only because of all of the issues roiling the political system along, sparking activity and reflecting distrust in the government but also because it culminated in a very bitter Democratic presidential nominating convention<\/a>. The convention would ultimately produce Hubert Humphrey as a nominee. It would also lead to a change in the rules governing the ways in which delegates were selected. Fifty years later, we are saddled with a complicated system that does not necessarily result in candidates with whom the general public resonates.\u00a0 Not only might our system be ripe for reform, but the possibility of a national primary might provide the right response.<\/p>\n

Nominating processes have continued to evolve over the course of the country\u2019s history.\u00a0 Though the use of a convention as a means to open the process up from backroom politics first occurred in 1832<\/a>, it became a more direct process in the early 1900s during the Progressive movement<\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0Following the 1968 convention, the reforms put into place for the 1972 election by the McGovern-Fraser Commission<\/a> changed the presidential nomination system, in ways that increased the power of the national party (Democratic National Committee or DNC), but also made the process more competitive.<\/p>\n

Under this system, the DNC removed the \u201cwinner take all\u201d or unit rule process by which states previously awarded all convention delegates to a single candidate, shifting instead to a more proportional.\u00a0 In this new system, candidates meeting a threshold (minimum %) received part of the overall number of delegates. As a result, many states shifted to primary elections as a means to select delegates. The number of delegates tends to reflect the relative population size.\u00a0 In addition, the party created an additional grouping known as \u201csuper delegates\u201d who came from party positions within the states.\u00a0 This group was meant to balance the more popular basis of the delegates, though its ability to impact the decision was changed in 2018; currently, super delegates only can cast votes on a second or later ballot, if no agreement on a nominee occurred on the first.<\/p>\n

Although the McGovern-Fraser Commission only applied to the Democratic party, the Republican party also shifted some of its rules.\u00a0 This impact resulted primarily because of the impact of McGovern-Fraser on state laws resulting in the growth of primaries.\u00a0 However, the Republican state parties still tended to use the \u201cwinner take all\u201d method to allocate delegates. Beginning in 2012, in an order to discourage states from scheduling their races too early (frontloading), the party required states with earlier contests to apply some measure of proportional allocation.\u00a0 For both parties, the nomination process today remains complicated.<\/p>\n

The calendar shows a lengthy line of events that vary not only by state but also, in some cases, by party within each state.\u00a0 Some state parties host caucuses, in which voters discuss candidates before visibly supporting a candidate \u2013 sometimes by ballot, in others by grouping with like-minded voters, raising their hands or another such method.\u00a0 Although less common, these methods are seen as more deliberative.\u00a0 More common is the use of primaries \u2013 elections within the party.\u00a0 Compared to just a decade or so ago, the majority of state parties now use open primaries, in which voters do not have to be registered with a party in order to vote in it \u2013 though they can only vote in one primary.\u00a0 \u00a0A small portion of states still use closed primaries, which allow only those voters registered with a party to cast a vote; closed primaries were once viewed as a way to protect the parties, but are now seen as tending to emphasize the influence of less moderate voters.\u00a0 (For further detail see the election calendar<\/a> from Ballotpedia, a credible source run by the Lucy Burns Institute, a non-partisan and non-profit entity.)<\/p>\n

Timing of presidential contests also adds a layer of complexity, as states hold their races from February through June.\u00a0 By their state laws, Iowa and New Hampshire require theirs to be the first races, even though they are not very reflective of the larger population.\u00a0 Turnout already tends to be lower, even in presidential nomination races, due to lower levels of engagement, as shown by the data provided by the United States Elections Project<\/a>; surprisingly turnout has not been noticeably different among contests that fall later in the cycle. The timing of the presidential nomination contests may or may not align with the timing for other federal, state and local primary contests, which can impact turnout in the latter races and increase the cost of needing to hold two elections.<\/p>\n

Over the last few decades, some states have opted to band together in their influence by holding their races on what has now come to be known as \u201cSuper-Tuesday<\/a>\u201d.\u00a0 This event is so named because it is the closest thing we have to a national primary; this year over 1300 delegates will be selected in the Democratic contests, which make up about one-third of the total delegates and two-thirds of the number needed to secure the nomination.\u00a0 Republican contests have been less consequential because they hold the presidency, despite some challengers to the president\u2019s run for re-election. \u00a0However, a significant portion of delegates still remains in the contests following Super Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Given the nature of the current process, perhaps it is time for more reforms.\u00a0 Dr. Lisa Parshall provides a thorough analysis of the shortcomings with the current system in Reforming the Presidential Nominating Process: Front-Loading’s Consequences and the National Primary Solution.<\/a><\/em>\u00a0 Some of Parshall\u2019s insights are captured here<\/a> \u2013 front-loading, which impacts momentum and perceived viability of candidates, also results in some voters having a greater influence on the outcome.\u00a0 She resurrects and strengthens a reform option long-suggested: shifting to a national primary process in which voters in all eligible areas cast their ballots on the same day.\u00a0 In this constitutionally-based argument, the reform offers greater political equality – one person one vote.<\/p>\n

Is it time for a change? According to an analysis by political scientist Morris Fiorina, weak partisans, independents who lean towards a party and pure independents do not find themselves well-represented by the parties<\/a>.\u00a0 The trend towards open primaries helps provide opportunities for these voters to participate and shape the direction of the parties, though turnout levels still leave much to be desired.\u00a0 Other reforms, such as the shift to mail-in ballots \u2013 such as recently passed in Pennsylvania<\/a> \u2013 can help those voters with work or transportation conflicts.\u00a0 A nationally coordinated set of primaries would not only provide for political equality among voters but allow for a clearer and coordinated effort to engage citizens in this important process.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hack: Capitalize when referring to a political party; small-case for democratic and republican indicates instead a type of government.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(What is\u00a0Civic Mind?\u00a0 Read our\u00a0welcome post for the series!)   1968. Civil unrest. The Vietnam War. That year made its mark in the history books, not only because of all of the issues roiling the political system along, sparking activity and reflecting distrust in the government but also because it culminated in a very bitter […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":58,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11462],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-civic-mind"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/58"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83\/revisions\/87"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.messiah.edu\/politicsinternationalrelations\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}